{"id":71079,"date":"2023-09-06T14:45:59","date_gmt":"2023-09-06T06:45:59","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/naipnews.naipo.com\/?p=71079"},"modified":"2026-09-07T13:48:49","modified_gmt":"2026-09-07T05:48:49","slug":"%e5%85%a8%e7%90%83%e7%bb%8f%e6%b5%8e%e4%ba%a7%e7%94%9f%e7%bb%93%e6%9e%84%e6%80%a7%e5%8f%98%e5%8c%96%ef%bc%81%e7%8e%b0%e6%9c%89%e5%95%86%e4%b8%9a%e6%a8%a1%e5%bc%8f%e9%9d%a2%e4%b8%b4%e6%96%b0%e6%8c%91","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/naipnews.naipo.com\/zh-hans\/71079\/","title":{"rendered":"\u5168\u7403\u7ecf\u6d4e\u4ea7\u751f\u7ed3\u6784\u6027\u53d8\u5316\uff01\u73b0\u6709\u5546\u4e1a\u6a21\u5f0f\u9762\u4e34\u65b0\u6311\u6218"},"content":{"rendered":"<figure id=\"attachment_2265\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-2265\" style=\"width: 1024px\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-full wp-image-2265\" src=\"https:\/\/naipnews.naipo.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/01\/A1-1.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" 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shutterstock\u3001\u8fbe\u5fd7\u5f71\u50cf<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<blockquote><p>\u8fd1\u671f\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u5bb6\u89c2\u5bdf\u5230\u5b58\u5728\u4e8e\u5404\u4e2a\u7ecf\u6d4e\u4f53\u4e2d\u7684\u4e24\u79cd\u5f62\u5f0f\u53d8\u5316\uff1a\u9664\u4e86\u901a\u5e38\u53cd\u5e94\u65f6\u95f4\u8f83\u4e3a\u8fc5\u901f\u7684\u5468\u671f\u6027\u53d8\u5316\uff0c\u66f4\u503c\u5f97\u7559\u610f\u7684\u662f\u7ed3\u6784\u6027\u53d8\u5316\u3002\u7ed3\u6784\u6027\u53d8\u5316\u4e00\u822c\u9700\u8981\u6570\u5e74\u65f6\u95f4\u624d\u80fd\u5f62\u6210\u548c\u663e\u73b0\uff0c\u800c\u4e14\u5f80\u5f80\u4f1a\u52a0\u91cd\u5bf9\u4e8b\u4ef6\u7684\u62c5\u5fe7\u7a0b\u5ea6\uff0c\u4f8b\u5982\u5404\u56fd\u592e\u884c\u73b0\u5728\u5f00\u59cb\u62c5\u5fc3\u901a\u8d27\u81a8\u80c0\u60c5\u5f62\u5c06\u4e0d\u518d\u662f\u77ed\u6682\u7684\u73b0\u8c61\uff0c\u800c\u4f1a\u53d8\u6210\u4e00\u79cd\u5e38\u6001\u3002<\/p>\n<p>KPMG\u9488\u5bf9\u7ecf\u6d4e\u73b0\u72b6\u4e0e\u5c55\u671b\u63d0\u51fa\u89c2\u5bdf\uff0c\u53d1\u73b0\u6050\u60e7\u73b0\u8c61\u666e\u904d\u5b58\u5728\u5404\u7ecf\u6d4e\u4f53\u4e2d\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e9b\u666f\u6c14\u5faa\u73af\u4e0b\u7684\u7ed3\u6784\u6027\u53d8\u5316\uff0c\u5f88\u6709\u53ef\u80fd\u4ece\u6839\u672c\u4e0a\u6539\u53d8\u5168\u7403\u7ecf\u6d4e\u7684\u8f68\u8ff9\uff0c\u4e0d\u4ec5\u4f7f\u5168\u7403\u66f4\u5bb9\u6613\u53d7\u5230\u4f9b\u5e94\u94fe\u51b2\u51fb\u548c\u5347\u606f\u7684\u5f71\u54cd\uff0c\u4eba\u5de5\u667a\u80fd\uff08AI\uff09\u7684\u65b0\u8fdb\u5c55\u4e5f\u4f1a\u5bf9\u73b0\u6709\u7684\u5546\u4e1a\u6a21\u5f0f\u9020\u6210\u65b0\u7684\u6311\u6218\u3002<\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p class=\"Article_tittle_3_blue_bold\" style=\"font-size: 36px;\"><span style=\"color: #026292;\">\u4eca\u5e74\u524d\u4e24\u5b63\u7f8e\u56fd\u7ecf\u6d4e\u8868\u73b0\u663e\u97e7\u6027<\/span><\/p>\n<p>\u7f8e\u56fd2023\u5e74\u7b2c\u4e00\u5b63GDP\u589e\u957f\u7387\u5411\u4e0a\u4fee\u6b63\u4e3a2%\uff0c\u6d88\u8d39\u548c\u51fa\u53e3\u4fdd\u6301\u589e\u957f\u529b\u9053\uff0c\u4f4f\u623f\u6536\u7f29\u5e45\u5ea6\u53d8\u5c0f\uff1b\u7f8e\u56fd\u5dde\u548c\u5730\u65b9\u653f\u5e9c\u7684\u652f\u51fa\u589e\u52a0\uff0c\u4e3b\u8981\u7528\u4e8e\u516c\u7acb\u5b66\u6821\u5347\u7ea7\u3001\u65b0\u5efa\u82af\u7247\u548c\u7535\u52a8\u6c7d\u8f66\uff08EV\uff09\u5de5\u5382\u5728\u5185\u7684\u57fa\u7840\u8bbe\u65bd\u5efa\u8bbe\uff0c\u800c\u7f8e\u56fd\u516c\u53f8\u505c\u4e1a\u6e05\u7b97\u662f\u62d6\u7d2f\u76ee\u524d\u7ecf\u6d4e\u589e\u957f\u7684\u4e3b\u56e0\u3002\u7f8e\u56fd\u7b2c\u4e8c\u5b63\u7ecf\u6d4e\u521d\u6b65\u8d44\u6599\u540c\u6837\u4e50\u89c2\uff0c\u5c3d\u7ba1\u7ecf\u6d4e\u589e\u957f\u901f\u5ea6\u6709\u6240\u653e\u7f13\uff0c\u6d88\u8d39\u8005\u4ecd\u5177\u6d88\u8d39\u529b\u3002<\/p>\n<p>KPMG\u53f0\u6e7e\u5b89\u4faf\u5efa\u4e1a\u4e13\u4e1a\u7b56\u7565\u957f\u6c60\u4e16\u94a6\u6307\u51fa\uff0c\u7f8e\u56fd\u623f\u5730\u4ea7\u5e02\u573a\u4e0d\u50cf\u5148\u524d\u90a3\u6837\u7684\u4f4e\u8ff7\uff0c\u5efa\u7b51\u5546\u6b63\u5728\u5229\u7528\u6b21\u8d37\u5371\u673a\u671f\u95f4\u5e38\u89c1\u7684\u623f\u5c4b\u62b5\u62bc\u8d37\u6b3e\u65b9\u5f0f\uff0c\u4f7f\u5343\u79a7\u4e00\u4ee3\u4e0d\u518d\u538b\u6291\u8d2d\u5c4b\u3002\u6b64\u5916\uff0c\u5728\u8fdb\u53e3\u4ecd\u9ad8\u4e8e\u51fa\u53e3\u7684\u60c5\u51b5\u4e0b\uff0c\u7f8e\u56fd\u8d38\u6613\u5448\u73b0\u75b2\u8f6f\u3002\u7f8e\u56fd\u653f\u5e9c\u5bf9\u7279\u5b9a\u4ea7\u4e1a\u8fdb\u884c\u8865\u8d34\u4ee5\u523a\u6fc0\u6295\u8d44\uff0c\u5176\u4e2d\u53c8\u4ee5\u82af\u7247\u548c\u7535\u52a8\u8f66\u4e3a\u4e3b\u3002\u9884\u8ba1\u7f8e\u56fd\u7b2c\u4e8c\u5b63\u5b9e\u9645GDP\u5e74\u589e\u957f\u7387\u4e3a1.8%\u3001\u63a5\u8fd1\u7b2c\u4e00\u5b63\u76842.0%\uff0c\u7136\u800c\uff0c\u5728\u7f8e\u56fd\u5bfb\u6c42\u4ee5\u548c\u7f13\u7684\u7ecf\u6d4e\u8870\u9000\u6765\u6291\u5236\u901a\u81a8\u7684\u4f5c\u6cd5\u4e4b\u4e0b\uff0c\u5c31\u76ee\u524d\u7f8e\u56fd\u7684GDP\u589e\u957f\u7387\u6765\u770b\uff0c\u6253\u51fb\u901a\u81a8\u8fd8\u6709\u4e00\u6bb5\u8def\u8981\u8d70\u3002<\/p>\n<p class=\"Article_tittle_3_blue_bold\" style=\"font-size: 36px;\"><span style=\"color: #026292;\">\u60ef\u6027\u7684\u901a\u8d27\u81a8\u80c0\u5f15\u53d1\u5371\u673a<\/span><\/p>\n<p>\u75ab\u60c5\u5f15\u53d1\u957f\u671f\u7684\u901a\u8d27\u81a8\u80c0\uff0c\u65f6\u95f4\u957f\u5230\u8db3\u4ee5\u6539\u53d8\u4eba\u4eec\u7684\u884c\u4e3a\u6a21\u5f0f\u3002\u5458\u5de5\u671f\u5f85\u4f01\u4e1a\u8c03\u85aa\u4f5c\u4e3a\u901a\u81a8\u8865\u507f\uff0c\u800c\u4f01\u4e1a\u5219\u5e0c\u671b\u4fdd\u6709\u5229\u6da6\uff0c\u8fd9\u5f53\u4e2d\u7684\u843d\u5dee\u5f62\u6210\u4e86\u6240\u8c13\u7684\u300c\u5229\u6da6\u4e0e\u5de5\u8d44\u87ba\u65cb\u5f0f\u4e0a\u5347\u6548\u5e94\u300d\uff08profit-wage spirall\uff09\uff0c\u4e5f\u662f\u9020\u621060\u548c70\u5e74\u4ee3\u901a\u8d27\u81a8\u80c0\u6839\u6df1\u8482\u56fa\u7684\u539f\u56e0\u3002KPMG\u89c2\u5bdf\u5230\uff0c\u300c\u5229\u6da6\u4e0e\u5de5\u8d44\u87ba\u65cb\u5f0f\u4e0a\u5347\u6548\u5e94\u300d\u6b63\u663e\u73b0\u4e8e\u90e8\u5206\u6b27\u6d32\u5730\u533a\uff0c\u56e0\u6b64\u82f1\u56fd\u3001\u6fb3\u6d32\u3001\u6b27\u6d32\u4e2d\u592e\u94f6\u884c\uff08ECB\uff09\u548c\u51e0\u5bb6\u5317\u6b27\u94f6\u884c\uff0c\u90fd\u5728\u4eca\u5e746\u6708\u65bd\u884c\u5347\u606f\u4ee5\u4f5c\u4e3a\u56de\u5e94\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u7f8e\u8054\u50a8(FED)\u5728\u4eca\u5e747\u6708\u4efd\u5347\u606f1\u7801\uff0c\u628a\u5229\u7387\u533a\u95f4\u63d0\u9ad8\u81f35.25%~5.5%\uff0c\u662f\u903e22\u5e74\u6765\u65b0\u9ad8\u30026\u6708\u4efd\u7f8e\u56fd\u7684\u7ecf\u6d4e\u6982\u8981\uff08the Summary of Economic Projections in 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class=\"Article_tittle_3_blue_bold\" style=\"font-size: 36px;\"><span style=\"color: #026292;\">\u5c45\u5bb6\u529e\u516c\u6b63\u5728\u91cd\u5851\u57ce\u5e02\u4e2d\u5fc3<\/span><\/p>\n<p>\u6c60\u4e16\u94a6\u6307\u51fa\uff0c\u5c45\u5bb6\u529e\u516c\uff08Work From Home\uff0cWFH\uff09\u4e0d\u4f1a\u968f\u7740\u75ab\u60c5\u7ed3\u675f\u800c\u6d88\u5931\uff0c\u5b9e\u884c\u6df7\u5408\u5de5\u4f5c\u6a21\u5f0f\u6709\u52a9\u4e8e\u4f01\u4e1a\u7684\u4eba\u624d\u62db\u8058\u548c\u63d0\u5347\u7559\u4efb\u7387\u3002\u6839\u636e\u65af\u5766\u798f\u5927\u5b66\uff08Stanford 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Insight\uff1a<a href=\"https:\/\/kpmg.com\/tw\/zh\/home\/insights\/2023\/07\/kpmg-insight-economics-outlook.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">\u7ecf\u6d4e\u73b0\u72b6\u4e0e\u5c55\u671b &#8211; \u7ecf\u6d4e\u7ed3\u6784\u6027\u53d8\u5316\u89c2\u5bdf\u5217\u8868<\/a>\u3002(\u8d85\u94fe\u63a5\u5df2\u5931\u6548\uff0c\u5982\u6709\u66f4\u65b0\u4f1a\u518d\u5c3d\u5feb\u63d0\u4f9b)<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n<table class=\"Yellowtable01\" border=\"0\" width=\"100%\" cellspacing=\"0\" cellpadding=\"0\">\n<tbody>\n<tr>\n<td bgcolor=\"#FFFFDF\">\n<table border=\"0\" width=\"100%\" cellspacing=\"0\" cellpadding=\"0\">\n<tbody>\n<tr>\n<td bgcolor=\"#FFFFDF\">\n<p class=\"Article_tittle_3_blue_bold\" style=\"font-size: 28px;\" align=\"center\"><span style=\"color: #026292;\"><strong>\u597d\u6d88\u606f\uff5e\u5317\u7f8e\u667a\u6743\u62a5\u6709\u5fae\u4fe1\u516c\u4f17\u53f7\u4e86\uff01<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n<p>\u300a\u5317\u7f8e\u667a\u6743\u62a5\u300b\u5185\u5bb9\u6db5\u76d6\u4e16\u754c\u5404\u56fd\u7684\u77e5\u8bc6\u4ea7\u6743\u65b0\u95fb\u3001\u91cd\u8981\u7684\u4fb5\u6743\u8bc9\u8bbc\u6848\u4f8b\u5206\u6790\u3001\u6cd5\u89c4\u89e3\u6790\uff0c\u4ee5\u53ca\u4ea7\u4e1a\u4e0e\u6280\u672f\u65b0\u77e5\u7b49\u7b49\u3002<\/p>\n<p align=\"center\"><strong>\u7acb\u5373\u5173\u6ce8\u5317\u7f8e\u667a\u6743\u5fae\u4fe1\u516c\u4f17\u53f7\u2192 NAIP_IPServices<\/strong><\/p>\n<p align=\"center\">\uff5e\u6b22\u8fce\u8bfb\u8005\u5206\u4eab\u4e0e\u8f6c\u53d1\uff5e<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<td bgcolor=\"#FFFFDF\"><span class=\"Article_tittle_2_blue_bold\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-37159\" src=\"https:\/\/naipnews.naipo.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/12\/NAIPNews_wechat.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"251\" height=\"252\" \/><\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<table border=\"0\" width=\"89%\" cellspacing=\"1\" cellpadding=\"8\">\n<tbody>\n<tr>\n<td bgcolor=\"#EFEFF8\">\n<table border=\"0\" width=\"100%\" cellspacing=\"0\" cellpadding=\"0\">\n<tbody>\n<tr>\n<td valign=\"top\">\n<table border=\"0\" width=\"100%\" cellspacing=\"0\" cellpadding=\"3\">\n<tbody>\n<tr>\n<td class=\"Article_content_15px\" valign=\"top\" bgcolor=\"#DBDBEE\" width=\"14%\"><strong>\u4f5c\u8005\uff1a<\/strong><\/td>\n<td class=\"Article_content_15px\" bgcolor=\"#DBDBEE\" width=\"86%\"><strong>\u5434\u78a7\u5a25<\/strong><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td class=\"Article_content_15px\" valign=\"top\"><strong>\u73b0\u4efb\uff1a<\/strong><\/td>\n<td class=\"Article_content_15px\">\u5317\u7f8e\u667a\u6743\u62a5\u4e3b\u7f16<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td class=\"Article_content_15px\" valign=\"top\" bgcolor=\"#DBDBEE\"><strong>\u5b66\u5386\uff1a<\/strong><\/td>\n<td class=\"Article_content_15px\" bgcolor=\"#DBDBEE\">(\u53f0\u6e7e)\u653f\u6cbb\u5927\u5b66\u65b0\u95fb\u7814\u7a76\u6240<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td class=\"Article_content_15px\" valign=\"top\"><strong>\u7ecf\u5386\uff1a<\/strong><\/td>\n<td class=\"Article_content_15px\">\u5317\u7f8e\u667a\u6743\u62a5\u8d44\u6df1\u7f16\u8f91<br \/>\n\u9a85\u8baf\u7535\u5b50\u603b\u7ecf\u7406\u5ba4\u7279\u52a9<br \/>\n\u7ecf\u6d4e\u65e5\u62a5\u8d22\u7ecf\u7ec4\u8bb0\u8005<br 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